Canada’s leading annual food price forecast is warning that grocery bills will keep climbing next year, and Ontario is expected to see above-average increases.
The 2026 edition of Canada’s Food Price Report, produced by Dalhousie University and partner universities across the country, projects overall food prices will rise by four to six per cent. A typical family of four (a man and woman aged 31–50, a teenage boy and a girl in late elementary school) is expected to spend up to $17,571.79 on food in 2026, an increase of about $995 from this year.
"Food affordability remains a top concern for Canadian consumers," the report says, noting food prices are already 27 per cent higher than they were five years ago.
This is the 16th year for Canada’s Food Price Report, which is compiled by researchers at Dalhousie, the University of Guelph, the University of British Columbia, and the University of Saskatchewan. The team uses historical data, machine-learning models and economic indicators to predict what Canadians will pay at the till.
The new report shows last year’s predictions were largely accurate. For 2025, researchers forecast a three to five per cent jump in food prices. The latest Consumer Price Index data show actual food inflation at 3.4 per cent, right in that range.
They had expected a family of four to spend up to $16,833.67 on food in 2025, but the observed figure came in slightly lower at $16,577.16, about $256 under the top-end forecast.
By category, the report says price increases for dairy, seafood, and restaurant meals matched the projections, while meat and "other" foods (such as non-alcoholic beverages) climbed more than expected. Bakery prices rose less than forecast, and fruits and vegetables actually became cheaper on average.
Report project lead Dr. Sylvain Charlebois said the collaboration behind the report has grown into one of the largest food-economy projects in the country. "We’ve been doing this for 16 years, and every year we go back and evaluate how we did," he said. "We never anticipated food prices would become the number one concern for most families in Canada the way they are now."
The report includes a provincial breakdown of recent food price movements and where they’re expected to go next.
For 2025, Ontario’s food inflation was classed as "average," roughly in line with the national rate. But for 2026, the authors expect Ontario’s food prices to rise faster than the Canadian average, putting added pressure on household budgets in this province.
Several Atlantic provinces, including Nova Scotia and New Brunswick, are also expected to see above-average increases, while places like Manitoba and British Columbia are forecast to be below the national pace. Looking ahead to next year, the report forecasts:
-Meat: up five to seven per cent
-Vegetables: up three to five per cent
-Bakery, dairy and eggs: up two to four per cent
-Restaurant meals: up four to six per cent
Charlebois says meat was the “number one driver” of food inflation in 2025, and it will remain a problem alongside pantry staples. "Last year we predicted meat prices would be a big story in 2025, and that’s exactly what happened," he said. "Chicken has gone up, beef has gone up, and pork has been the only real deal left. We don’t expect that to last into 2026, and we don’t see how beef prices could normalize before mid-2027."
The report notes that beef producers in drought-hit regions have cut back herd sizes, reducing the amount of cattle coming to market and pushing prices higher.
While inflation eased in 2024 and stayed relatively steady through 2025, the report warns many families are still struggling to put food on the table. In 2023, 22.9 per cent of people in the 10 provinces lived in a food-insecure household, about 8.7 million people, including 2.1 million children. Food bank use has hit record highs, with about 2 million visits per month, nearly 90 per cent higher than in 2019, while nearly 85 per cent of Canadians told researchers their household food expenses rose in the past 12 months. Those pressures are especially acute for younger Canadians. A recent survey cited in the report found about 40 per cent of Gen Z respondents had to dip into savings or borrow money to buy food, compared with just 20 per cent of Baby Boomers.
The authors also highlight that the report does not include the Northwest Territories, Yukon, and Nunavut, even though those regions face some of the worst food affordability challenges in the country, largely because detailed price and consumption data are lacking.
The report points to a long list of global and domestic factors affecting what Canadians pay for food, including:
-Trade disputes with the United States, including sweeping U.S. tariffs on Canadian goods and Canada’s counter-tariffs earlier this year, which disrupted trade flows and raised costs through the supply chain.
-Extreme weather, such as droughts in beef-producing regions of Western Canada and crop problems in places like West Africa and Brazil, which helped drive up prices for products like meat, cocoa and orange juice.
-Labour shortages in food manufacturing and agriculture following COVID-19.
-A softer Canadian dollar, which makes imported food more expensive.
The report notes the Bank of Canada has been cutting interest rates, bringing its key rate down to 2.25 per cent to support a slowing economy. While that can leave more money in consumers’ pockets, it can also weaken the currency and keep upward pressure on imported food prices.
Researchers also studied the impact of this year’s "Buy Canadian" movement, which saw many shoppers trying to avoid American products in response to new tariffs and political tensions.
Charlebois says they initially worried such a boycott would hurt affordability by forcing retailers to source food from farther away, but that’s not what happened. "The numbers do suggest there was a boycott in 2025 against American food products," he said. "But in the produce section, we actually did fairly well. Inflation for fruits and vegetables was in the negative, even as Canadians bought more from places like Egypt, Peru, South Africa and Mexico. So we weren’t penalized the way we feared."
At the same time, the report notes growing distrust of big grocers, pointing to this spring’s Loblaw boycott and the ongoing debate over “greedflation.” It says the new Grocery Code of Conduct, which major chains like Loblaws, Sobeys, and Metro have now signed onto, could help smaller suppliers and increase competition, but only if there is effective oversight and enforcement.
With Canadians still watching every dollar at the checkout, the report’s authors say their goal is to give consumers, governments and businesses a clearer picture of what’s driving prices.
"Canada's Food Price Report is a vital resource that highlights the factors shaping our food systems and impacting food prices," said Kelleen Wiseman of the University of British Columbia. She says the forecasts help decision-makers respond to both economic and environmental pressures.
Evan Fraser of the University of Guelph’s Arrell Food Institute adds that while the report points to continued increases, it also shows signs of slowing food inflation and a system becoming more resilient after several years of "cascading crises."
For families in Ontario and across the country, though, the bottom line from this year’s report is simple: grocery bills are still going up, and there’s little relief in sight for 2026.
You can download this year's Price Report here:
